I am a 5th-year Ph.D. candidate in Political Economics at the
Stanford Graduate School of Business, and I am affiliated with the
Poverty, Violence and Governance Lab.
I study political economy, with a focus on how government influence over the media
shapes political accountability in consolidating democracies. I am also interested in
how electoral institutions shape the selection and behavior of politicians. Most of my
work focuses on Mexico, where I build original datasets from government advertising
contracts, news archives, and legislative records.
Under Review
Party Discipline across Electoral Mandates and Career Concerns: Theory and Evidence
from Votes and Speech in the Mexican Congress
with Gabriel López-Moctezuma
[Abstract]
We study how party discipline varies with electoral mandates and career concerns. In our
model, partisan benefits induce discipline insofar as leaders rally enough support among
their legislators to make their promises credible. Absent reelection, constituency concerns
offset the leader’s promises, leaving district legislators less disciplined than their
list copartisans. Reelection makes these benefits electorally valuable, directly improving
district legislators’ local valence and list legislators’ renomination prospects,
and indirectly strengthening the leader’s credibility in both tracks. We test the
empirical implications of the model in Mexico’s mixed-member Congress around the reform
introducing consecutive reelection. We measure disagreement with party leaders in votes and
speech across seven Congresses (2006–2024): disagreement falls in both tracks after the
reform, most among district incumbents. Leaders, in turn, redirect partisan benefits toward
district incumbents ex ante and reward the disciplined while punishing dissenters ex post.
Accountability reforms that leave ballot access, list placement, and campaign finance in
party hands can strengthen the organization they were meant to check.
Working Papers
Allocating Influence: Government Advertising in Mexico’s News Market
(Job Market Paper)
[Abstract]
Governments, whether autocracies or democracies, seek to influence the media.
Autocracies use strategies such as propaganda and censorship, but these tools are
limited in democracies. In this paper I show how governments can still influence the
media through political favoritism. By reallocating advertising toward aligned outlets,
a government enables them to invest in their newsrooms and raise their news production.
Combining the universe of federal advertising contracts in Mexico with the full text of
national print media, I use the 2018 transition from a right-wing to a left-wing
administration and estimate a difference-in-differences specification. Outlets that
share the incumbent’s ideology become more likely to receive a contract. These
allocations reflect favoritism and not the audiences a government would need to reach,
whether the demographic a campaign names or the incumbent’s own voters. Aligned
outlets then hire more journalists, publish more articles, cover more news events, and
report more facts in each. Their circulation also rises relative to misaligned outlets.
Favoritism toward competing firms therefore reallocates productive capacity across a
market instead of transferring rents within it, a mechanism of political control that
operates through market competition.
The More the Merrier? The Effects of Council Size on Representation and Local Governance
[Abstract]
Does broader political representation improve local governance? I use population thresholds
in Mexican state law that fix the size of a municipal council, comparing municipalities just
above a threshold with those just below, and link novel data on the characteristics of every
council member to the output that council produces in office. Crossing a threshold seats 12
percent more representatives, and they are negatively selected: councils gain more members
with a basic level of education and with no prior political experience, while parity rules
hold the share of women fixed. Governance does not improve. Larger councils approve about
half as many initiatives, a third fewer per member, across a narrower agenda, and their
alignment with the preferences of citizens decreases; spending is unchanged in level and
composition. I interpret this as negative selection at the margin of the party list: the
supply of candidates is smooth at the threshold, but lists are closed and ranked, and parties
concentrate their strongest candidates where the return to quality is highest.